Meta credit risk spikes as spending plans grow

Bond market measures widened as Meta raised its capital spending forecast and leaned further on debt and new stock to pay for it

Credit markets are now pricing the same tension that equity investors have been weighing since Meta's nonvoting share plan surfaced on Wednesday: heavier AI infrastructure spending funded increasingly through debt and new stock classes rather than cash flow.

Meta raised its 2026 capital spending forecast to a range of $135 billion to $145 billion, then narrowed that range and raised its expense outlook after booking a litigation charge. To help pay for the buildout, the company is planning to issue nonvoting shares and sell additional stock rather than rely solely on free cash flow.

In its most recent quarter, Meta posted earnings per share of $7.40, beating estimates, while revenue of $64.60 billion came in just short of forecasts.

The company also faces $25 billion in fresh legal exposure from two privacy cases: a jury verdict over the Cambridge Analytica data breach and a New Mexico penalty, set October 1 after a Santa Fe jury found liability on September 25. Both reopened questions about the ceiling on Meta's privacy liabilities just as its capital needs climb. Wider spreads suggest bondholders are now weighing that leverage and legal tail risk together, a combination that had been treated as two separate storylines until now.