Euro-area households raise one-year inflation view to 3.0%, three-year to 2.9%
The ECB's monthly survey shows one-year expectations at 3.0% and three-year expectations at 2.9%, both up from July.
Published
The European Central Bank's Consumer Expectations Survey for August showed euro-area households expect inflation of 3.0% over the next year, up from 2.9% in July. Expectations for inflation three years out rose to 2.9% from 2.7%.
The survey, published monthly by the ECB, tracks how households across the currency bloc see prices moving over different horizons. Moves of a tenth of a percentage point are within its normal month-to-month range.
The gap between the two readings points to inflation staying sticky in the near term while households still expect it to settle back over time. That pattern sits alongside a debate among ECB policymakers over whether to keep raising rates to guard against inflation taking hold more broadly, or to hold back given the risk that further tightening slows growth. The survey does not change the near-term case for a firm policy stance, and traders are not shifting their rate expectations on the back of it.
For anyone positioned on European rates or bonds, the data is a reminder that the near end of the inflation outlook has not cooled as much as some had hoped, even as the market's longer-run view of inflation edges higher rather than lower.