Novo Nordisk data show semaglutide tied to lower cardiovascular risk than tirzepatide
A real-world study presented at EASD found Novo Nordisk's 2mg semaglutide dose linked to a 6% lower risk of serious cardiovascular events than Eli Lilly's tirzepatide in adults with type 2 diabetes.
Published
The finding adds a cardiovascular argument to a rivalry that has mostly centred on weight loss and market share. A separate Novo-sponsored real-world study, known as STEER, found a larger effect in a different population: patients with overweight or obesity and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease but no diabetes. That study, using Komodo Research Data claims on 10,625 matched patients per group treated between May 2022 and January 2025, found semaglutide linked to a 29% lower risk of three-point major cardiovascular events and a 22% lower risk of five-point events versus tirzepatide, according to its listing on PubMed.
Not all real-world data point the same way. A separate study using TriNetX records, published in Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism, found tirzepatide linked to a lower rate of composite cardiovascular outcomes than semaglutide, 1.90% versus 2.18%, in non-diabetic adults with obesity.
The diabetes-focused result lands after Eli Lilly's tirzepatide had been gaining ground, with Lilly holding roughly 70% of new prescriptions among older GLP-1 patients and a recent weight-loss trial win for tirzepatide tilting the narrative in its favour. It also follows a sharp 7.4% drop in Novo Nordisk's stock and reassurance from its chief financial officer on margins. A real-world signal favouring semaglutide on serious cardiovascular events gives Novo a differentiated clinical case in diabetes care that weight-loss data alone does not address, though as observational data from a conference rather than a head-to-head trial, it is unlikely on its own to reverse the share-loss narrative facing the company.