ECB's Kazimir calls September rate rise inevitable
The comment restates a decision already made, as traders weigh whether fresh Spanish inflation data will revive the case for another increase in October.
Published
Chart: ECB deposit facility rate
ECB governing council member Peter Kazimir said the central bank's September rate increase was inevitable, describing the move as part of a tightening cycle that has now delivered two increases this year.
His remark defends a decision already taken rather than offering guidance on what comes next. Traders currently see under a 40% chance of another rate rise in October, after President Christine Lagarde said this week that rates already sit at the top of what she considers the neutral range. Lagarde has also flagged upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, saying uncertainty remains high.
That downgraded pricing on October now faces a test. Spain's harmonized inflation rate came in at 5.0% for September, above the 4.9% consensus and up from 4.6% the month before.
Kazimir's comment does not address that data or the live question of further tightening. It confirms the reasoning behind the move the ECB already made in September, but leaves traders' positioning on October and December largely where it was before he spoke.