Molina Healthcare tops Q3 estimates but holds full-year guidance steady

Revenue reached $11.08 billion, above the $10.92 billion expected, as the insurer kept its 2026 forecast unchanged

Molina Healthcare reported third-quarter earnings of $0.89 per share, $0.14 above expectations. Revenue came in at $11.08 billion, ahead of the $10.92 billion analysts had forecast.

The company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, including premium revenue of about $42 billion, GAAP earnings of at least $2.38 per diluted share and adjusted earnings of at least $5.25 per diluted share. That outlook already accounts for a $1.50 per share loss tied to a new Florida Medicaid contract starting in the fourth quarter, and a $1.00 per share loss from the traditional Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug product, which Molina plans to exit for 2027.

Chief Executive Joseph Zubretsky said medical cost trend appears to be plateauing, though still elevated, and that strong 2027 rate updates point to the start of a turn in Medicaid margins.

Both figures beat estimates, but the reaffirmed guidance means the beat did not translate into a higher outlook, since the Florida contract loss and the Medicare Advantage exit are already built in. The more consequential claim is Zubretsky's own: that cost trends are leveling off and margins are turning. That is management's assessment of its own business, and it will be tested against actual cost trends in the coming quarters, starting with the fourth quarter, when the Florida contract's $1.50 per share drag begins.