Morning Briefing, October 21, 2026

S&P 500 futures point to a modestly firmer open, with SPY up 0.2%, as the market continues to split earnings reaction from an unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff. Overnight oil swung sharply higher again, with WTI touching a session high near $99.88 and Brent above $111, after Iran's foreign minister said Tehran will not negotiate following a dispute over added US clauses to a reopening deal, and after a separate incident was reported near Bukha, Oman, though crew were said to be safe.

Falling US crude inventories added to the bid in oil even as Treasury Secretary Bessent argued overnight that Iran's currency has collapsed and domestic panic is building. On Ukraine, envoy Witkoff is due to meet Putin on Wednesday with Kushner joining virtually, following comments from Finland's president that technical progress has been made toward a peace framework ahead of a planned session in St. Petersburg; Trump separately said Stephen Hubbard, a US citizen held by Russia for four years, has been released. The Kremlin said it is ready for nuclear talks with the US and China.

Technology is the strongest sector pre-market, with XLK up 1.0%, led by HP Enterprise (+4.7%), SK Hynix (+4.0%) and a broad semiconductor bid after SK Hynix completed a 40 trillion won buyback; Lam Research, KLA, Applied Materials and Nvidia are all up more than 2%. Health Care is the weak spot, with XLV down 1.0% as Intuitive Surgical slides 6.3% and Abbott falls 4.1% despite both reporting results. Consumer Staples (XLP -0.6%) lags behind on Philip Morris's 2.9% drop even after the company raised guidance. Company News Super Micro Computer jumps 11.3% after guiding preliminary first-quarter sales to $18.5-19.5 billion, well above the roughly $15 billion expected. Netflix falls after fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $13.44 billion missed the $13.51 billion expected, even after a Q3 EPS beat. AT&T drops 6.0% despite raising its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to around $2.40 and planning over $45 billion in shareholder returns through 2028. Danaher falls 3.7% even after beating Q3 estimates and raising full-year EPS guidance to $8.57-$8.62. Moody's slides 2.8% after missing revenue expectations despite an EPS beat. Capital One rises 3.6% after Q3 EPS of $6.69 beat by $1.13, with management citing progress on the Discover integration. Elevance Health raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to at least $29.00 after a large Q3 beat. Thermo Fisher Scientific falls 2.5% despite beating Q3 estimates; the company guided full-year revenue to $47.7-$48.2 billion. Teledyne Technologies agreed to acquire Varex Imaging for about $1.1 billion and raised full-year EPS guidance. eBay plans to cut about 9% of its workforce to focus on growth areas. Overseas Data

China's Commerce Ministry opposes a US order targeting DeepSeek. Japan's finance minister said she will work to accelerate a cycle of investment and wage gains.

UK September CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, above the 3.4% expected and up from 3.1%, with core CPI at 2.8%. Producer input prices jumped to 8.3% from 6.1%, well above consensus, while public sector net borrowing came in at £24.5 billion versus £24.0 billion expected. Bank of England's Greene warned Tuesday that policy may not be restrictive enough and that further wage disinflation is needed.