Opec+ set to leave November crude quotas unchanged

Delegates expect the group to ratify its existing roadmap at Sunday's meeting, with millions of barrels of Middle Eastern production still offline

Opec+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia are likely to keep crude production quotas unchanged for November. Delegates expect the group to ratify its existing roadmap when it meets on Sunday. Millions of barrels of Middle Eastern production remain offline.

The rollover would extend a pattern the group has followed through recent meetings, holding quotas steady rather than adjusting output targets. Opec+ had signalled well before this week that no policy shift was coming, so confirmation at Sunday's meeting would tell traders little they do not already know.

The more active story has been on the ground rather than in the communique. Saudi media reported explosions in Yanbu, Jazan and Najran on Monday. Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline resumed exports after repairs the same day, with flows back near 3.5 million barrels a day and loadings at Yanbu resuming. Iran's oil exports have plunged under a US naval blockade even as Saudi and Iraqi exports rebound.

Against that backdrop, a no-change quota decision carries little weight. The variable that has actually moved prices is Houthi attacks and how quickly damaged infrastructure gets repaired, a factor the quota decision does not touch. With Saudi and Iraqi exports recovering even as Iran's flows collapse, the physical market has coped better than the headline risk around it suggests, which makes a routine rollover from Opec+ neutral at best, and arguably a sign that supply is not the constraint driving the market right now.